XFL Week 4: A Look Ahead Against the Spread
By The Masked Prognosticator
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The
Masked
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(23 February 2001) --Rotten luck and a rotten team did us in last week as NY-NJ had Orlando well in hand, 12-3. Then in the fourth quarter they sung like canaries and ratted us out, losing 18-12. But to make it worse, they failed to cover the 5 ½ point spread . . . by half a point. Our message to Rusty Tillman and Drew Pearson is this- the Family is not pleased.
Sigh, the life of a handicapper.
Oh well. With only 4 instead of 15 games to choose from, and with little or no history and stats to look at, the best you really can do in the XFL is to pick the side that you feel gives the highest probability of winning. This is especially true this week.
Memphis +4 ½ at LOS ANGELES
Clearly, Elvis left the building early at the Liberty Bowl the last two weeks. The Ax have been less like "Kings" and more like "Paupers" as they come off of two dreadful games where they lost straight up as home favorites. What happens to underachieving teams that go on the road off two straight up home favorite losses?
Well, they don't die sitting on the john, but close. In the past 11 years NFL teams in this situation are 12-19 against the spread. Granted, a 61% play, nothing earth shattering. But check this: in games where one of the teams are in this situation, the winner of the game covers the spread 28 put of 31 times! At 90%, the key to the L.A.-Memphis match up is to pick the winner.
Let's put away all those silly NFL numbers and finally talk about XFL stats. The philosophy being thrown out there right now by some is that to handicap the XFL, you should handicap mistakes. That's hard to do, though early in the season it does make some sense. XFL teams that have enjoyed a positive turnover ratio in so far are 2-1 ats this season. No team with 0 or negative turnovers has a winning ats record. (with only three games in the bag, you can now see why we rely on NFL systems so much!)
Then there are the Memphis Maniax. In a league where turnovers and penalties should start going DOWN as teams gel, the Ax have gone above and beyond to distinguish themselves . . .
Not only are the Ax an XFL worst -6 in turnover ratio, they have gotten WORSE in their three games! Starting with a +1 turnover ratio against Birmingham, they lost the ball net 4 and 3 times, weeks 2 and 3 respectively.
But the story gets worse. Memphis' penalty yards have actually INCREASED with each game from 52 yards week one to 72 week 2 and 81 last week! No wonder Kippy Brown looks so angry all the time.
Either this team needs to get it's act together, or it will be back to Heartbreak Hotel for them.
On the other side of the ball, Tommy Maddox, Al Luginbell and the rest of Xtreme while unspectacular seem to be getting it together. They've flatlined their turnover ratio to zero, and penalty yards have decreased over the three games from 52 to a sweet 34 ypg. The X come off a paltry 12 point performance against the Outlaws. While they may be a bit beat up, we are basically betting on home field advantage and that the Ax will beat themselves.
I guess before taking this game, keep in mind that sloppy play aside, the Maniax do out stat the Xtreme so far in yards per rush both in offense and defense
Back to the original question- who will win the game, thus covering the spread? Unless Memphis can get it's act together in quick order, the real question might be: what will be higher, UPN's rating or the number of Maniax turnovers? If it's the latter, we have a funny feeling someone with funny hair, sideburns and sunglasses back in Memphis will be shooting their TV set Sunday night.
Indeed, for the Maniax, Los Angeles may truly be "3000 miles from Graceland". (Well, actually 1,839, but why ruin one more cheap Elvis joke?)
This game is our PICK OF THE WEEK:
LOS ANGELES -4 ½ over Memphis
New York +6 ½ at Chicago
Chicago is a tantalizing side in this game. NFL teams off 3 straight road losses are 5-1 ats AND straight up as home favorites. In addition, the straight up winner of a game involving a team in this scenario is 14-0 ats, while the favored team is 9-4 ats!
And Chicago is not a bad 0-3 team. Ron Meyer, Tim Lester, John Avery and Co. almost beat Orlando and L.A. We thought Chicago had a legitimate shot at their first win last Sunday when until the Forcers were struck by lightning with a last minute Thunderbolts interception that was run 97 yards for a TD.
It seems in the NFL, coming home after a disastrous road trip is just what the doctor ordered. And let's put it this way- if a team is favored after losing three straight games, it doesn't say much about the other team.
Too bad this particular road trip took place the first three weeks of the season. Otherwise this would have been a stone cold mortal lock.
Ah, the other team, the Hitmen, a very deserving 0-3. Instead of acting like "wise guys" striking fear in the hearts of their opponents, the Hitmen have been more like "buffoons". You heard us whine about them already. (Speaking of which, how weird was it that the line in that game went from 5 ½ points down to 3 ½ when we picked New York last weekend?).
But did you know when two NFL teams with records of exactly 0-3 square off , the home team is 1-5 ats, and if the home team is favored, they are 1-4 ats? This makes sense. After all, no one wants to be 0-4. With two 0-3 teams looking for their first $2500 bonus of the year . . . and of course, fear of angering their "capos". . .well, you kind of have to cancel out the systems favoring Chicago, don't you?.
Speaking of the home team being at a disadvantage, in the NFL, 0-3 teams are 10-17-2 ats in game 4 if they play at home.
And that's enough history to scare us away from this game. Throw in the uncertainly of whether New York will play Wally Richardson or Chuck Puleri.
If you have to take a side, I guess we would still take Chicago. They are the better team. Again, the winner of the game . . .14-0 ats. But at 6 ½ points in a game of two hungry 0-3 teams, we can't recommend the hard working but mistake prone Enforcers as a play.
As your football handicapping "consigliere", my advice to you is this: Do the right thing, and stay away.
Las Vegas +3 at San Francisco
This is an interesting game, The Demons are getting better each week. Meanwhile the Outlaw defense is quite awesome, NOT ALLOWING A TOUCHDOWN THIS SEASON. The 3 point line seems to be pretty sharp though.
The problem with games involving Las Vegas is that their defense is good enough to keep the opponents down to 6-9 points. The problem is that their offense SHOULD be outlawed, and might only SCORE 6-9 points a game!
And with third string Vegas QB Mike Cawley getting pulled for yet ANOTHER Arena 2 level reject, we really are beginning to question just HOW much Baltimore- EEER Las Vegas' defense CAN do.
San Francisco on the other hand has a decent rushing defense and QB Mike Pawlawski might be the guy to finally capture and hang the overworked Outlaw defense.
We're not crazy about the game, but if the Demons can't pick this game apart for a touchdown, it could very well degenerate into another thrilling battle of the field goal kickers. If they don't blow out Vegas, the Demons could win with a chip shot field goal in the last minute. This not exactly a five star Game of the Year pick, but San Francisco seems to be the right side here.
Birmingham +4 at Orlando
No systems. No trends. No analysis.
Were not being smart. It's just there is little to sink your teeth into with this contest.
Orlando is clearly the number 1 team in the East. If this were the NFL, Birmingham would be a 9-7 St. Louis level squad.
This truly is the battle of the vanilla teams.
Orlando is the better team. When in doubt, take the winner. Take Orlando if you must take a team. Call it our "blue chip pick of the week".