XFL Week 5: A Look Ahead Against the Spread
By The Masked Prognosticator
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The
Masked
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(28 February 2001) --This week I will be in Florida visiting my good friend Sam Rothstein, so we have no choice but to make our Week 5 selection early. Our recommendation would be to hold off on placing any bets since XFL betting lines tend to be very volatile, and our pick also factors information from an extended weather forecast.
Besides, you shouldn't be betting the XFL ANYWAY. Unless you are in Nevada, it's against the law, and unlike the NFL this league is very, VERY unpredictable so far.
No we are not whining because we are 2-2!.
Well, O.K. just a little bit.
I stand behind our New York pick 2 weeks ago. They had every reason to win that game, and they choked. This past week's pick killed us though. Just hours after we picked Los Angeles to cover the 4 1/2 over Memphis, the Maniax confirmed Jim Druckenmiller as their starting QB (in the XFL, teams starting with new QBs due to a benching are now 3-0 ats). Then it rained for the first time in 100 years in Los Angeles. Basically Rashaam Salaam and the Druck and the rest of the Ax played out of their minds and drove the Xtreme nuts, 18-12 in a total swamp fest.
Week 5 is the first time that there are 3 home dogs. But before you lick your lips at taking those puppies (did I just say that?) here's a word of caution for you: IN THE XFL, HOME UNDERDOGS ARE 1-5 AGAINST THE SPREAD!!!!
With that disclaimer, we are giving an underdog a SECOND CHANCE this week:
Los Angeles (-2/-3) at New York
In the Mob, rarely does one live twice. 2 weeks ago, the Hitmen brought dishonor upon themselves and shamed us by coming up 1/2 point short versus Orlando. But we are merciful, and are giving the NY-NJ Hitmen an opportunity to show they can still be good "earners" for us in the XFL.
There are several good reasons for us to do so. NFL history, and signs of life in the Tillman "crew" are encouraging (don't worry- I have more than enough bad Mafia jokes to last the rest of the season!).
In the NFL from 1987-1994, the Los Angeles Rams and Raiders playing in cold weather outdoor stadiums December out were 5-10 ats (but when they played at the Meadowlands any time of the year, they were 5-2 ats, but played only once in the winter).
Teams from L.A. are soft, like narley, laid back, dude. Just like their Florida counterparts, they sit in in the hot sun, and then get, like you know, freaked out when it gets too cold. But even worse, the laid back SoCal attitude and hanging out with movie stars makes them even more chilled out.
Compare the bogus Xtreme to the down and dirty Hitmen. So far our perennial flunkies, The Hitmen are slowly but surely making their bones each week. In Week One, they sucked. In Week 2, they still sucked, but put 12 points on the board. In Week 3, they almost beat the best team in the league. It all came together this past weekend as Rusty Tillman and Co. beat up on the so-called Enforcers on the road, 13-0. With a win over L.A., they might even get "made"!
On paper L.A. is really the better team right now, but as they showed last week, the Xtreme is struggling with it's running game. NY-NJ is starting to show a good defense, and feature a slightly superior run game against the X, averaging 84 vs. only 45 yards per game. In addition, New York's rushing totals have improved from 61-76-90-110 yards each week, while the Xtreme have YET to run a 100 yard game this season!
Nothing earth shattering, but it will be in the 30s in New York, perfect rushing weather.
If they cannot establish the run against New York, L.A. will be forced to air out the ball in the cold weather- a prescription for disaster. Plus, passing games in the XFL are very risky since there is more likelihood of interceptions. Someone needs to tell Al Luginbill we aren't in the CFL any more, and that you get FOUR downs instead of three to make 10, not 15 yards!
The Hitmen were able to handle a team even better than L.A. for 3 quarters two weeks ago. We think the Hitmen may have improved enough to make it a full game this week.
Brau, this is like, our pick, brodie. The wrong team may be favored in this contest, and our pick of the week IS:
NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY +3 over Los Angeles
Surfs up!
Las Vegas (-3/-4) at Chicago
Imagine leaving $10,000 on the table. That is what the Enforcers have done at 0-4. They are hungry, very hungry for their first win at home. But Chi-town will need more than raw emotion if they hope to beat Las Vegas with it's awesome defense, allowing just one TD and 24 POINTS IN FOUR GAMES.
What Chicago will need is John Avery, who missed the game last week. In the muddy conditions, New York simply ran the ball down their throats, 117-54 yards.
The question will be can Las Vegas "D" stop a healthy Chicago run game? Considering they are a better team, and XFL home doggies so far are 20% ats, I think LV is a pretty safe bet at 3 points, but if the line goes to 6 or above, I'd stay away since this looks to be a very low scoring contest.
Orlando (-1/PICK) at Memphis
Speaking of $10,000, imagine the joy of being on the Orlando Rage at 4-0! Jeff Brohm and Co. are the Class of the XFL. And pretty rich too.
Memphis meanwhile rebounded under Jim Druckenmiller and went 2-2 after running the ball on the hapless Xtreme in monsoon conditions.
We expect this game to be pretty close. Orlando is the better team, and one good game from the Maniax is not enough to impress us yet. Play the home dog angle in this one and take Orlando minus a field goal, but anything over 4 points is a bit risky.
Birmingham (+3/+3 1/2)at San Francisco
Here's yet another XFL "system": teams are 0-3 ats after playing Las Vegas. This makes sense since tough defensive teams leave their opponents pretty beat up. The same applies to the NFL where teams post a losing ats record after facing Tampa Bay, and this past season 5-8-1 ats after playing Baltimore.
San Francisco is suspect as a favorite against anybody until we see more.
For
this reason, take Birmingham and the points, though the
Bolts aren't
knocking our socks off too much either.