XFL Week 6: A Look Ahead Against the Spread
By The Masked Prognosticator
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The
Masked (2-3
ATS XFL Record WHO IS THIS MASKED MAN? Once a worldwide jet setting playboy gambler, the Masked Prognosticator lived the life of fast cars, fast women, and fast money in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and Monte Carlo. He was forced into hiding when he broke a connected bookie from New Jersey in 1997. The loss of the Masked Prognosticator's freedom is your gain: now he gives his picks up for FREE. |
(9 March 2001) -- So, desperation has finally set in. No, not the XFL trying to boost it's abysmal ratings by bringing cameras into the Orlando Rage cheerleaders locker room! Were talking about OUR desperation!
With a 2-3 against the spread record thus far, we truly say that we are envious of the XFL publicity department right low. The mask helps, though.
But, look, cut us some slack with picking NY-NJ over L.A.. First off, we made the pick on Tuesday. I had a business meeting with an associate in Florida. As a disclaimer, we TOLD YOU to wait for the weekend before blowing your lunch money on the Hitmen, REMEMBER?
Hopefully you listened to our advice and waited until AFTER the XFL got rid of the bump and run rule, which definitely benefited the Xtreme's pass happy offense by obvious leaps and bounds. If you had waited, you also would have laid off the play after Hitman coach Rusty Tillman's IQ went down 14 points. I mean, your down 22-7, with 2 minutes left, and you GO FOR A STUPID FIELD GOAL????
Call Jesse Ventura holding up "Coaching 101" a work, but the guy has a point. Tillman is an obvious dope.
Enough of my weekly whine and excuse fest. We're out of cheese anyway. Off to our next selection!!!
Well, not quite yet. If you had been checking the XFLBoard, you now know that new rules may be enacted before game time Saturday night. We have our keysters on the line here, but that doesn't mean you have to. Remember what happened to our NY-NJ pick? Right. Wait until as close to kickoff time as possible and see what the XFL has in mind before calling Guido downtown.
To the pick:
L.A. -3 at BIRMINGHAM
One of the true pleasures of football handicapping is when several winning systems merge in one game. That has not happened so far in the XFL. Used to picking 2 games every week in the NFL, we usually have a slate of 13 games A WEEK to choose from. In the XFL, we have been forced to pick 5 games out of 20- THIS SEASON.
Oops! There I go whining again . . .
So far in the XFL, road favorites are an impressive 6-2 against the spread. If you simply pick the straight up winner of an XFL game correctly, you would have won the money 17 out of 20 times, with one push. Here's another stat to blow your mind: when Western division teams are favored against Eastern division teams, the West is 4-1-1 ats! Plus, if it weren't for the only true good team in the XFL East, Orlando, the West would be 5-1 STRAIGHT UP against the East in ALL games!
Now, imagine if you were to take a Western division team that happened to be a road favorite against an inferior Eastern team NOT from Florida?
Sooo . . . who is this team that has the gods behind it? The Los Angeles Xtreme, 3 point favorites from the West playing on the road against a mediocre-at-best team from the East, Birmingham.
I know, I know . . . HEY MASKED ONE ("2-3 ats Masked One", if you really want to be a jerk about it)- WHICH XFL team was involved in your last 2 picks? AAAaah . . yes . . but what a difference removing the bump and run rule makes! But back to this East-West "connection" . . .
When it comes to the East vs. West, it truly is a case of the "haves" and the "have nots". All four of the XFL teams from the West have been competitive so far, while in the East, only Orlando can be considered a good team.
Birmingham so far has failed to impress. The 3 losses include being unable to cover a 3 point home dog spread against the Maniax and two crushing road defeats at the hands of Orlando and San Francisco. Their two dubyas include beating the lousy Hitmen by 6 points and winning on a last minute interception at the three yard line against the Enforcers at home.
Contrast with L.A., who showed Saturday night in New York that they will definitely benefit from the leagues new ruling. Look for Al Luginbill and Tommy Maddox to light up the T-Bolts with their resurrected passing attack.
At first glance, we think the 3 points actually might be an underlay, but there is one angle that DOES concern us in this game: XFL teams are 1-3-1 ats in the second consecutive road game. And remember when we said that road favs were 6-2 ats? Guess what scenario saw one of those two road favs fail to cover?
Yup. Last week when the Las Vegas Outlaws failed to cover against the Enforcers in their SECOND ROAD GAME. The other road favorites? L.A. week one against SF. L.A. is 2-1 ats as RF however.
In addition, we admit that declaring ANYTHING in the XFL a "system" after only 5 weeks is a BIT of a stretch.
Like we said on XFLBoard before, unlike the NFL, when handicapping the XFL, you pick the game which you feel you have the highest probability to win.
This game is our PICK OF THE WEEK: L.A. -3 over Birmingham
Las Vegas +3 AT ORLANDO
Correctly picking the winner in the XFL is a 17-2-1 proposition against the Man.
That makes this game very simple. Orlando features a better team, and we think they will win the game. Demanding the Rage to cover 3 bones against a LV team that really has a questionable offense and got beat by the stinking Enforcers last week is not all that much to ask. Vegas does have a terrific D, but again, it is only 3 points were talking here.
Keep in mind that Vegas is playing their third straight road game this week.
One word of warning: when two teams play in the national NBC game on Saturday night, the VISITING team is 1-3-1 ats! (They must want to impress all 50 of those viewers.
Hey if the XFL can make fun, so can I!!!!) Nuts. Can't we get
a break ANYWHERE??!??
You know what? The heck with that NBC system. We need some winners. And Orlando is a pretty solid side.
We're going to make this game our first ever
SECOND PICK OF THE WEEK: ORLANDO -3 at Las Vegas
(By
the way, since we made Orlando over Birmingham a "Bluechip
Pick of the
Week", doesn't that really make us 3-3????)
New York +7 at SAN FRANCISCO
The Hitmen are obviously getting punished for their poor play and Rusty Tillman's obvious, incompetent coaching by being declared 7 point fidos.
It's well deserved. But until we see the new rules, it's hard to recommend a team as 7 point favorites in the low scoring XFL.
It's not a play, but in the XFL, you pick a winner. The Demons are winners, the Hitmen hellfire cooked wieners in this game.
Chicago +6 at MEMPHIS
The
hard luck Enforcers finally got a well deserved V last week.
We need to
see more. But again, 7 bones is too high a price.
If
you have to take a side, take the Ax. But frankly you are a
bigger doofus
than Rusty Tillman to bet this game.