XFL Week 7: A Look Ahead Against the Spread
By The Masked Prognosticator
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The
Masked (4-3
ATS XFL Record WHO IS THIS MASKED MAN? Once a worldwide jet setting playboy gambler, the Masked Prognosticator lived the life of fast cars, fast women, and fast money in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and Monte Carlo. He was forced into hiding when he broke a connected bookie from New Jersey in 1997. The loss of the Masked Prognosticator's freedom is your gain: now he gives his picks up for FREE. |
(16 March 2001) -- Back in the saddle again at 4-3 ats after our first 2-0 weekend, we may actually have a handle on this league. Well, I guess with only 4 weeks to go, we'd better!
First, another disclaimer. Vince McMahon met with or will be meeting with XFL coaches this week to discuss possible rule changes. Once again, in the XFL we implore you to wait until as close to the scramble as possible before placing a wager on any game!
As we approach Week 7 in the XFL, we are suffering from a strange case of deja vu.
This is the second week in the row where several XFL against the spread "systems" go into play in a single game. Last week we made Los Angeles one of our two selections as they were a Western Division team posted as road favorites against an inferior Eastern Division team (Birmingham).
This week, we have isolated an XFL team in the EXACT SAME ROLE. For those of you just tuning in, here is what we are talking about:
- Straight-up winners of XFL games are 22-1-1 against the
spread! The only team that lost the game but won ats and the
next week lost SU but pushed? Chicago, weeks 1 and 2. Since
them the winner has been 14-0 ats(!!!)
- Road favorites are 7-1 ats.
- Excluding Orlando, Western division teams are 6-2-1 straight up and ats vs. Eastern division teams.
So who is this week's lucky team?
The Memphis Maniax.
Memphis -2 at NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY
The Maniax are burning like a flame off their first home win with a last minute victory against Chicago. The Ax now travel to the swamps of New Jersey to face the hapless Hitmen. Rusty Tillman and Company have been less like men and more like "sopranos" with a home record of 0-3 straight up and ats. On the road Memphis have been heartbreakers at 2-0 ats and straight up. Memphis is from the West, a better football team, and is the road favorite.
Adding
it all up, the odds of NY-NJ covering the spread is about the
same as Sammy "the Bull" Gravano sharing a beer with
John Gotti Junior! The line in this game was originally Memphis
by 3. Now it's down to only 2 points, most likely due to injuries
to
Memphis QB Marcus Crandell (probable with a bad foot) and star
running back Rashaan Salaam (questionable shoulder).
Who cares? The Hitmen suck. Last week's win against Frisco was a fluke win against the Demons and their back up quarterback. There will be no "Love Me Tender" for New York this time around. After this game, Rusty Tillman might be sharing a concrete bed with Jimmy Hoffa underneath the Hitmen's home field!
This
game is our PICK OF THE WEEK:
Memphis
-2 over NEW YORK-NEW JERSEY
San Francisco -2 at CHICAGO
A no-brainer. San Francisco is laying 2 points at Chicago. Based on our brilliant West .vs. East theory, and that the Demons are road favorites, you would be hellaciously moronic not to take the City by the Bay. . . right???!!!!
Unfortunately my friends, there is an exception to every rule, and before going further, let us play Devil's Advocate (been waiting all year for that one).
Remember the ats that straight up winners of XFL games are an AMAZING 22-1-1 ATS? Guess which team lost but covered the one time and pushed the second?
You guessed it. Chicago. And the one road favorite loss to mar our otherwise perfect 7-1 angle? Chicago, + the points, against Las Vegas 2 weeks ago.
But here's the problem: Chicago's covers were in weeks 1 and 2 of the season, when frankly, handicappers were undervaluing the team. -Las Vegas was off their second road game when they lost. XFL squads are 2-4-1 ats in their second road game.
In other words, we think the Enforcers "success", for lack of a better term, is suspect. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
We are not 100% comfortable with the Demons as our pick as a road favorite, especially with QB Mike Pawlawski listed as questionable with a neck injury. Nonetheless, 7-1 ats is an awesome angle. We're going with the girl that brought us to the dance. And this week, we are Dancin' with the Devil!
San Francisco is the right side in this particular contest, and is our SECOND PICK OF THE WEEK:
San Francisco -2 over CHICAGO
Birmingham +7 at LAS VEGAS
The Thunderbolts ride in without star QB Casey Weldon, out with a bad shoulder. Great! The Outlaws are from the West, and they will win the game! The 7 bones while a high number is an easy cover . . . .WHOOOA!!!
Not so fast there, Slick.
This is the XFL we are talking about. As you saw above, no pick is easy in this new league.
While
in many circles the number "7" is considered a lucky
number, that is not the case here. See, in Vegas one of the
most popular games is craps, and in craps,
if you roll a 7, you "crap out", and are out of luck.
In Week "Seven" of the XFL, the number 7 is also an
unlucky number as XFL teams that are favored by 7 points or
more are 0-4-1 against the spread!
Part of the problem is low scoring. The other is that only 40% of the extra point conversions succeed in the XFL. Your lucky numbers in this league are 2, 4, and 5. 3 is not bad either. But stay away from 7. And stay away from this game.
Orlando +2 at LOS ANGELES
Here's the one all of you XFL fans have been begging for! In what we have said from the beginning of the season would be a preview of the XFL title, the two highest flying teams in the league duke it out for bragging rights! (Anyone remember that AOL site?)
At stake? For Jeff Brohm and Orlando, beating every team in the league and clinching the XFL East. For L.A.? Living up to their pre-season billing as the first ever champs and getting the inside track on Western honors.
This is a tough call. Even when you look at common foes, both teams are close. They both beat up on the XFL Least, punking New York, Chicago and Birmingham. As for the West, yeah Memphis beat L.A. but lost to the Rage. In defense of the Xtreme, Memphis crushed Los Angeles is a freakish monsoon, and almost beat Orlando.
The
bottom line for this is 2 factors: home field advantage and
that Los Angeles may need the win more than Orlando. Orlando
clinched at least a playoff berth, and their players are fat
and happy with $12,500 in their pockets. Even with a loss, they
will
still be at least 3 games ahead of the pack for the East. Since
New York and Birmingham are in tough situations this week, that
number will more likely be 4.
I'm
not saying the Rage are lazy- it's just you cannot underestimate
emotion, motivation and $2500 in XFL football. And the Rage
have played only 2 . . COUNT
'EM TWO . . .road games thus far this year.
On the other side of the ball, we like what Los Angeles has done the past few weeks. While the no bump and run rule is a non-factor here since both teams feature great pass offenses, the Extreme have found new life in their running game.
Motivation.
Home field advantage. 2 points. While it will certainly be an
exciting showcase of the all new high scoring XFL, and could
go either way, put a gun
to our heads (a situation I've been though before, trust me!)
and we say asking L.A. to cover the two measly points here is
not an impossible task!
One word of caution: Orlando is an impressive 5-1 ats this year, their only foible being opening day against Chicago.