The Million Dollar Pick: A Look Ahead Against the Spread
By The Masked Prognosticator
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The
Masked (8-9
ATS XFL Record WHO IS THIS MASKED MAN? Once a worldwide jet setting playboy gambler, the Masked Prognosticator lived the life of fast cars, fast women, and fast money in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and Monte Carlo. He was forced into hiding when he broke a connected bookie from New Jersey in 1997. The loss of the Masked Prognosticator's freedom is your gain: now he gives his picks up for FREE. |
(20 April 2001) -- After a disastrous regular season we OWN the XFL playoffs, correctly telling you last week Orlando could not cover a 6 ½ point line (though they could have won that game) and that the Xtreme would decimate the Enforcers and cover the huge 7 ½ points to boot.
In the championship game we find Los Angeles laying 7 1/2 points again, and siding with favorites laying large playoff lines is tricky. Thanks to the new PAT rules a team down by 20 points can still tie a game with minutes left. Nonetheless this is such a one-sided affair that we think the Million Dollar Game will follow the NFL SuperBowl tradition of anti-climatic blowouts. As the recent XFL radio commercial says, "San Francisco is just trying to find a way to win" and boy, is that ever true.
The Xtreme has been awesome, going 6-1 ats since the bump and run rule was rescinded. They get to play their third straight home game at the Coliseum, a venue where they have been 5-1-1 ats. It doesn't hurt that these are Tommy Maddox' old stomping grounds from college. And while trying to cover 6 or more points has been a tough 4-5-1 ats role in this league, L.A. has handled the extra lumber well, cashing in at 2-1-1.
On the other side of the ball, you almost have to feel like the Demons are lambs being lead to the slaughter as they play an unprecedented FOURTH straight road game. Two weeks ago they were humiliated 24-0 by the Xtreme and were outgained 337-261 yards. Last week they overcame a 16-0 deficit and capitalized on Orlando mistakes to steal the spot in the title game 26-25.
We have the feeling that the San Francisco Demons already had their "Million Dollar Game"- last week.
Los
Angeles simply has too many weapons, and the game two weeks
ago proved it. XFL Player of the year Tommy Maddox has simply
been manly with an 18-9 touchdowns to interception rating. Weeks
ago Saladin McCullough solved their running game riddle. And
we didn't even mention Los Angeles awesome receiving corps.
As a
result, the Xtreme are the highest scoring team in the XFL,
and the only team to rack up five 30 point games in a league
where scoring seems hard to come by at times (Frisco only racked
up that many points once).
Don't look for too many fourth and goal conversions from the Demons. The Xtreme have the #1 ranked rush defense in the XFL. They continue to be awesome, not even allowing a rushing touchdown in it's last 2 games, while the Demons have scored only three ALL SEASON.
If San Francisco had any hope, it would have rested with their incredible quarterback, Mike Pawlawski. During the regular season Paws has an incredible 12 TD to 4 INT ratio, and was 2-0 Week One vs the X. Unfortunately he went 0-2 Week 10 vs. L.A. before getting knocking out of the game, which leads to the bad news.
He's still injured, and will serve as back up to Pat Barnes. Barnes did okay filling in earlier this year, but last week threw 2 interceptions and no TDs, though throwing 16 for 26 and 181 yards was not the worst performance ever.
The only other thing the Demons have going for them is the second highest rated pass defense in the XFL. If Frisco can shut down Maddox, they will force the game to the ground, but as outlined earlier, they will probably lose that battle.
Still queasy about the number? Well, if you are convinced the Xtreme are going to win the game, you shouldn't be. The straight up winner of an XFL game is an astronomical 38-3-1 ats!
When you add it all up, the Demons are in a bad situation against a superior team in a great situation. The 7 1/2 points is a heavy price to pay, but there is no question that Los Angeles is the correct side in this game.
THE MILLION DOLLAR PICK:
LOS ANGELES -7 1/2 over San Francisco